The process of choosing a successor to the slain al-Qaeda emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, may not seem as smooth as he is to succeed Osama bin Laden, who was killed on May 2, 2011 in Abbottabad, northeastern Pakistan.
On June 16, 2011, that is, 44 days after the killing of bin Laden, Al-Fajr Media Center announced that Al-Zawahiri had assumed the leadership of the group by the “General Command of the Al-Qaeda Group.”
Al-Zawahiri’s choice was a foregone conclusion by virtue of the merger between Al-Gama’a Al-Islamiyya and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad that he led in June 2001, and the declaration of the “Jihad Base Group.” In this capacity, he was next to bin Laden. That was only three months before the September events.
So, expectations were at that time, without further discussions, that Al-Zawahiri would be appointed to succeed Osama bin Laden, while many names are still being proposed today among those concerned and interested in knowing the name of the organization’s next emir.
There are sources within the al-Qaeda branch in the Levant tell us that they “put Abu Obeida Youssef al-Annabi (the leader of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) at the top of the list of names likely to be chosen, within the coming weeks.”
The organization does not commit itself to a time limit for choosing a new emir to succeed the killed or arrested emir, or who was removed by a decision of the Shura Council, or who chooses to remove himself – cases that were not witnessed by the organization that rotated in its emirate, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, both of whom were killed by the Americans.
The above sources tell us that there are discussions and correspondence between the central leadership of the organization and the leaders of other branches of the organization – including Hurras al-Din, which represents the Syrian branch, and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
One of the administrative officials in the Guardians of Religion faction, spoke to us on condition of anonymity, and said that the faction’s leadership had already received a letter from the al-Qaeda leadership under the name “Mahmoud” asking them for a referendum, as he put it, about the nomination of those they consider qualified to lead the organization, provided that they indicate The reasons for that.
The source said that he did not know the person nicknamed “Mahmoud”, stressing that the means of communication between the two parties was sound and is the same as that adopted between the mother base and its Syrian branch.
The difficulty of choosing a successor to Al-Zawahiri lies in the absence of mechanisms for choosing princes and the failure to appoint one of the leaders to the position of his deputy after the killing of his deputies, the last of whom was Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran in August 2020.
Therefore, the biggest challenge arises in choosing a new emir in light of the presence of “reputable” leaders in Iran, most notably Saif al-Adl, who is closest to the succession of al-Zawahiri, according to criteria related to the leaders’ activities, their jihadist history, and the leadership positions they took over, in addition to other factors related to scientific and legal eligibility.
But the final say remains for the decision of the Shura Council, which includes the main leaders of the group, who coordinate among themselves through correspondence with al-Qaeda branches to exchange information about the candidates and agree on one of them, who will have to obtain the “pledge of allegiance” of all members of the Shura Council to take over the emirate.
Saif al-Adl, or Muhammad Salah al-Din Abd al-Halim Zaidan, took over al-Qaeda’s proxy emirate for six weeks after killing Osama bin Laden from May 2 to June 16, 2001, during which he secured allegiance to al-Zawahiri.
There were also news reports indicating the appointment of Saif al-Adl as Emir of the organization following news of the death of al-Zawahiri due to illness in October 2020, which is another data that led to expectations or speculations that Saif al-Adl will succeed his slain emir al-Zawahiri.
However, these prognostications overlook noteworthy developments in the path of the man residing voluntarily or forcibly in Iran, a very important factor in the calculations of the organization’s senior leaders who do not want to lose more of their mass base, which in reality is suffering from a gradual decline in the turnout for recruitment into its ranks.
Saif al-Adl is the son-in-law of “Abu al-Walid al-Masri” or Mustafa Hamid, who is known as an al-Qaeda historian, and also resides in Iran, who is seen as the godfather of the relationship between Iran and both the Taliban leaders and the first generation of al-Qaeda leaders.
In the jihadi movement, there are those who see that Saif al-Adl, with his Iranian relationship, cannot be the emir of al-Qaeda. Muzmir al-Sham, the well-known account of which revealed the secrets of the jihadist movement, wrote that in one of the sessions that I gathered with Abu Khaled al-Suri, the Syrian ruled out that Saif al-Adl would assume the leadership of the organization in the future, because he is “a simple man who does not have the ability to manage the affairs of the organization,” but “Muzmir al-Sham” It was found that the Syrian’s words were in another circumstance that differs from the current situation of the organization after the killing of the Egyptians, Abu al-Khair and Abu Muhammad in Idlib in 2017, and in Tehran in 2020, respectively.
In another interview we had with a leader who defected from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who requested that his name not be mentioned, he said that he heard from one of the “trustworthy brothers” that Saif Al-Adl knows for sure that his chances in the organization’s emirate are very low in light of the reality that he says that he is not It is logical or reasonable for members of the Shura Council to pledge allegiance to a leader whose freedom is restricted by Iran, which made him push for the selection of one of the closest leaders to him, Khaled Batarfi, the emir of the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda.
This dissident leader does not rule out the appointment of Batarfi. He says that it is possible that Saif al-Adl’s orientations will have an impact on choosing Al-Zawahiri’s successor because of the man’s prestige and respect among the advanced leaders who believe that there are enough convincing justifications for his presence in Iran, unlike the later generations, which are generations that it is important for al-Qaeda leaders to work as much as possible. To win her affection and loyalty because it is the mainstay of the organization’s survival and existence.
Another leader, a “dissident” from al-Qaeda in Yemen, told us that the identity of the Caliph was not yet clear. He says that he does not have enough information about “any of the personalities around which the discussions of choosing the new emir revolve”, but he is still in contact with some of what he said are “trusted brothers in the organization, with whom I have a brotherhood of religion before it was the relationship of members of one organization that we lived in.” his days together.
He said that it is difficult to “confirm” the personality of the new emir, given the fact that “Al-Zawahiri has been without a deputy for the past two years after the killing of Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran.”
The source from Yemen ruled out that the choice would fall on Saif al-Adl or “Abu Abd al-Rahman al-Maghribi,” but he returned, however, by saying: “However, if the Shura Council sees that either of them is fit to lead the organization in its current stage of decline, and the leadership of the parent organization has moved away from most affairs. Regarding its branches, the council may choose one of them, and it is reasonable that the Moroccan is the closest to that.
Al-Maghrebi is Al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law and is responsible for the “Al-Sahab” Foundation, the media wing of Al-Qaeda. He also heads the Office of External Communications. He is also a well-versed leader in software and media, and these have become priorities in the qualifications of advanced leaders after the priorities were for legitimate leaders.
This dissident adds that the Egyptian current, which he described as the “dominant”, has none of the effective leaders left with the exception of Saif al-Adl. “Therefore, the trend towards choosing leaders who are not advanced in age and who are not from the founders’ generation has become a realistic option.”
Regarding the choice between Saif al-Adl or al-Mughrabi, a source in Hurras al-Din told us that neither of them mentioned their name; He considered the first to be “Abu Ubaida Yousef al-Annabi,” the leader of al-Qaeda in North Africa. He says: “This does not mean that the other branches of al-Qaeda adopt the same viewpoint as the Syrian branch, for reasons including that the failure to nominate Saif al-Adl or al-Mughrabi is due to a great sensitivity related to their residency in Iran. Faraway countries such as the Maghreb or Somalia may not have the same sensitivity. ”
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