Expect nothing miraculous when world leaders, diplomats, activists, and scientists congregate in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, next week for discussions on combating climate change. They aren’t going to part the Red Sea or perform any other miracles that would significantly slow down global warming.
Every year, there are high expectations for the two-week UN climate conference and, almost invariably, disappointment when it fails to produce another historic deal like the Paris agreement in 2015.
But those were different days, marked by a spirit of cooperation between the world’s two biggest polluters – the United States and China – as well as a global realization that failure to reach an agreement would put humanity on a self-chosen track to oblivion.
The geopolitical landscape has changed as of November.
Conditions are difficult at a gathering that calls for consensus and collaboration because of the catastrophic war in Ukraine, rising oil and food costs, and growing hostility between the West and Russia and China.
Since the pace of warming over the last ten years has accelerated by 33% compared to the 1990s, scientists are more concerned about global warming than they were thirty years ago when governments first began to examine the issue.
Despite the fact that greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, the effects of climate change are now being seen on a global scale.
But there has been some advancement. Before Paris, the world was projected to warm by 4. 5 degrees Celsius (C) over pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Thanks to recent predictions and government actions or clear commitments, that temperature is now expected to be 2. 6C. That is a lot higher than one.
Countries agreed to a 5C limit seven years ago, but the window of opportunity to meet that goal is rapidly closing.
According to research, the world has already warmed by 1. 2C, and to cap temperatures at 1. 5 C by the end of the decade would require a 43% reduction in emissions. Emissions must decrease by 27% to meet the 2C goal, which is less demanding.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, prices for oil, coal, and natural gas have increased.
In response, some nations have tried to access fresh fossil fuel supplies.
The deal made at last year’s climate negotiations to “scale down” the use of coal and significantly reduce the quantity of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – released into the atmosphere has generated fears about nations breaking their obligations to reduce emissions.
At the same time, growing fossil fuel costs have increased the affordability of renewable energy.
But underdeveloped nations continue to pay more to build solar and wind power installations. Rich countries are discussing “just transition energy partnerships,” or JET-Ps, with a number of significant emerging economies, notably Indonesia and India, to provide aid in order to help them fast reduce their emissions. These projects might be finished during or shortly after COP27.
Greta Thunberg, a Swedish climate activist, has lately referred to the UN process as a “scam,” and she will not be attending this year’s summit.
Given the severity of the threat posed by climate change, other campaigners have also expressed their dissatisfaction with the slow pace of negotiations.
The event in Egypt will mark the first UN climate talks to take place in Africa since 2016. Experts say it is important the continent gets more attention, given how heavily it is affected by rising temperatures.
Campaigners claim that a good conclusion this year depends on acknowledging the difficulties Africa faces and giving vulnerable nations’ needs first priority.
High aspirations for the COP27 climate negotiations, but disappointment is anticipated
About Author
