Robert Patman, a professor of international studies, thinks that Russian President Vladimir Putin would feel the pressure as a result of his country’s recent setbacks in the war in Ukraine.
Putin has “ripped up the UN charter,” according to Patman of the University of Otago, and is dealing with instability at home, according to this morning’s Breakfast.
The Russians are retiring continuously, which is pretty unsettling, and morale is quite poor among Russian ranks, he continued.
Putin needs to quickly consolidate, in my opinion.
The stakes are very high, and if he doesn’t act, he could lose power and possibly his life. “This is the worst crisis in Putin’s 22 years in power, either as president or as prime minister of Russia.
Patman responded, “Yes, I believe he’s finding himself in a very tough position. I think he would feel humiliated.
In many ways, he is aware that if the military situation in eastern Ukraine worsens – and, of course, the Ukrainians have made amazing progress since the beginning of September… given the current momentum, the Ukrainians are set to make more victories.
According to information released by Ukrainian officials on Thursday, Ukrainian forces have retaken 400 square kilometres of land in the Kherson region since the beginning of October and are also waging a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region.
Putin has made statements about annexing, but the reality differs from his claims, according to Patman. “I believe that Moscow is showing deep signals of uneasiness. ”
He left open the prospect that by year’s end, Russian forces would be compelled to leave Ukraine.
“Many people have assumed that Russia cannot be defeated because of the disparity in size between Russia and Ukraine and the power imbalance between the two countries.
“It’s very difficult to forecast what will happen – the so-called fog of war, the ebbs and flows of battle – but the momentum is obviously with Ukrainians at the moment and you can envisage a situation where the Russian army may collapse,” said one analyst. One of the reasons Putin has raised the nuclear sabre is because the stakes are so high.
Over the invasion, Putin “may lose power and possibly his life.”
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