Recent actions by Putin suggest that he “see this war as existential for himself.
Will Moscow’s conflict turn nuclear? is a pressing subject that the United States and its NATO partners are currently debating.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is also making more and more nuclear threats as the danger of his position on the Ukrainian battlefield increases.
The ex-KGB spy’s most recent threat to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia during the conflict in Ukraine has prompted an even more urgent and disturbing question: Is he being sincere?
Putin declared: “This is not a hoax” after announcing last week that Russia would contemplate using nuclear weapons.
Putin sounded the alarm that it was not a prank and that there is disagreement among Western diplomats, legislators, and nuclear weapons specialists.
Some claim that in an effort to prevent military defeat, safeguard his presidency, threaten the West, or intimidate Kyiv into surrender, he could unleash one or more tactical nuclear bombs.
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, indicated on Friday that this might not be the case. Given Putin’s loose discourse and provocative statements, he continued, “there is a risk that he will think about it.”
According to Sullivan, the White House warned the Kremlin that the United States would take “decisive” action if Putin carried out his threats.
In a letter, Putin stressed that Russia was extending its nuclear protection to four newly seized regions of Ukraine. Sullivan was responding to that letter.
Alexander Gaboev of the Carnegie Endowment claims that Putin appears to believe that if he can persuade the US and its NATO allies that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons over Ukraine, they will put pressure on Kyiv to submit.
According to Gaboev, Putin’s dilemma is that the Ukrainian government, army, and people are confident in their ability to win and won’t be intimidated by nuclear threats.
The United States is merely boosting its arms sales to Ukraine in the meantime.
Putin might believe that escalation is his only option if Ukraine continues to retake territory that he now believes is a part of Russia.
Putin, according to Gaboev, “sees this conflict as existential for himself, and potentially for his personal survival, for his legacy, and for his country,” as evidenced by his recent actions.
Before reaching the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, Putin might turn off the electricity to important Ukrainian cities, launch air and missile attacks on particularly vulnerable locations, or even unleash chemical weapons on the battlefield.
According to Andrea Kendall Taylor of the Center for American Security, if Putin deploys nuclear weapons, he might aim for a “illustrative effect” by igniting one over the Black Sea or in the Arctic or by placing a smaller “tactical” nuclear weapon on the battlefield. the fresh
According to the site’s report, the United States is unlikely to respond with a nuclear strike, but it could launch a conventional military strike on Russian soil, possibly focusing on the unit or site responsible for the Russian launch, and then take non-military measures like permanently seizing the Russian Central Bank’s reserves, as Kendall Taylor explains.
Former NATO deputy secretary general Rose Gottemoeller forecasts that Putin will suffer severe diplomatic costs in addition to a “strong non-nuclear” military reaction. She tells Axios, “He would lose the Global South, which would be a tremendous disappointment for him because he was so clever in keeping them on his side.
The US could destroy Russia’s Black Sea Fleet if it launched a nuclear assault in Ukraine, according to retired general Ben Hodges, who oversaw US forces in Europe.
But doing so might result in a Russian counterattack and even a full-scale conflict.
The annexation of four Ukrainian districts was ratified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday during a ceremony in the Kremlin, where he declared that “success will be ours.” This caused a wave of worldwide outrage, and Kyiv swore to keep its territory free.
Will there be a nuclear war over Russia?
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