Lebanon and Israel have reached an indirect stage in their dispute over the natural gas fields in the disputed offshore region, with the possibility that they will reach an agreement that could result in a significant benefit from potential energy resources, but if any happens. While Europe is concerned about the energy crisis and gas prices. War could result from a mistake.
The Karish gas field and the potential Qana gas field are located in this region, which is the centre of a dispute between Lebanon and Israel over energy exploration rights. Israel claims that the Karish field is located in its economic waters and that it is located outside the borders of Lebanon that it claims. In contrast, Lebanon asserted that the gas field is partially within its boundaries given the numerous threats Hezbollah has made against Israel.
The Hezbollah group launched three reconnaissance planes towards the Energean company’s production and storage ship after it arrived at the Karish field in July. However, the Israeli army shot one of the planes down, and the next step is to begin the first work to extract gas. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called this step “A red line,” and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned Nasrallah against any attack, saying, “The price will be Lebanon.”
“Orna Mizrahi, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, emphasises the significance of the agreement until it eliminates the potential cause of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah: “For Israel, the maritime border agreement is actually a solution to a strategic security threat.” Added she, “For months, the Israeli army has been on high alert and is prepared for any situation. Perhaps Nasrallah can take action near the border rather than against the gas rig.
Noting that indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon started ten years ago when significant offshore natural gas deposits were found, but they fell through between the two parties, analysts think a deal this time around is now feasible.
Unconfirmed rumours state that Israel may demand a cut of Qana’s income or payment as compensation if Lebanon transfers its boundary claim from the northern half of Karish in exchange for Israel allowing it to manage Qana.
The Middle East gas negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are at a turning point.
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