According to “Ali Sabt bin Sabt,” the secretary-general of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, many of the world’s largest oil fields fall into the category of mature fields, meaning they have been producing for more than 25 years or whose maximum production rate is steadily declining. These fields are the backbone of the petroleum industry, contributing an estimated 75-80% of the world’s oil production.
The Secretary-General explained that despite the variety of future scenarios, the reference case scenario, also known as Business as Usual, continues to be the most significant because the other scenarios are frequently linked to variables that are not clearly defined, such as population growth, national income, and the proportion of renewable energy in the energy mix. And others, they remain hypothetical scenarios that could change drastically for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to global health crises, economic crises, and geopolitical crises, which can significantly alter the maps of supply and demand, as it did recently due to the decline in oil prices. The majority of European nations have stated their intentions to reduce the use of fossil fuels, not to
The quantity of energy available for export will decrease if the current production rates remain stable, not to mention the possibility of a decline in these rates in the event of a decrease in investments in the field of development, as Bin Sabt noted that the global demand for energy is constantly rising within the scenario of the reference case, and this includes the growth of demand in the producing countries themselves.
He predicted that oil and gas supplies will make up around 50% of the energy mix in 2045, which is in accordance with predictions made by BP, OPEC, and the EIA, who predict that oil and gas will make up correspondingly 55%, 53%, and 45% of the total future demand in 2045.
In the same field, he emphasised that coal may fulfil roughly 17 to 21% of the need, meaning that fossil fuel sources will collectively meet between 67 and 71% of the total world demand, with the remaining sources (nuclear and energy) accounting for the remaining 24 to 38%. He clarified that just roughly 6.7% of the energy mix utilised globally in 2021 came from renewable energy sources (solar and wind).
The world is expected to use 800-870 billion barrels of oil until 2045, which is equivalent to about 60–67% of the total proven reserves in the world in 2020, or about 1.28 trillion barrels, according to the reference case scenario. He also noted that meeting at least half of the global energy demand with oil and gas during the next two decades will not be an easy goal in the event that investments in the petroleum industry decline.
Given that new discoveries from massive fields have been on the decline and have become smaller than the previous ones in recent years, both in terms of quantity and size, this means that it is crucial to make up for the quantities produced through new discoveries or through the adoption of improved oil recovery techniques.
Bin Sabt stressed that oil will continue to play a crucial role in furthering global development and that fossil fuels will continue to be the most significant components of the energy mix in the next decades, presenting the petroleum industry with two options that must be pursued concurrently.
The first is to pump money into field exploration, which is a crucial option, but the number of enormous oil fields discovered each year has decreased over the past ten years compared to the number of enormous gas discoveries. This lessens the importance of the first option and emphasises the second, which is the development of known proven reserves in mature fields, which is a less risky option than operations Exploration in new areas.
In this regard, he explained that improved oil recovery techniques play a crucial role in developing mature fields by increasing the production rate and by raising the extraction coefficient from these fields, which can be viewed as a new discovery because it is scientifically accepted that the average extraction coefficient in many of the world’s fields did not exceed 35%, which means that there are 65% of the remaining geological reserves that still represent an impo
OAPEC Secretary: It won’t be simple to meet half of the world’s demand for oil and gas.
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