After all of Ian Foster’s ups and downs, it came down to 12 minutes. The All Blacks head coach was effectively kept in his job after the final 12 minutes of the Test at Ellis Park.
Another way to look at it is that if his team had not come back from a two-point deficit against the Springboks with two converted tries (the first without the sinbinned Beauden Barrett), the New Zealand Rugby board would almost certainly have been forced to go for the nuclear option of sacking Foster, a move that would have blown up the plans of at least three Kiwi Super Rugby teams.
Because it would have been impossible for Foster to stay if David Havili had not stretched out his right arm to put the ball on the line for the All Blacks to retake the lead and Scott Barrett had not sealed it with a try from close range at the death after the Boks’ pack was effectively harassed into submission.
READ MORE: Foster survives as NZR backs All Blacks coach to World Cup victory
Foster would most likely be on vacation and looking for a new job if Richie Mo’unga had not taken charge of a Test in danger of slipping away from the All Blacks, Jordie Barrett had not become increasingly influential, and men like Ethan de Groot (before he was replaced) and Fletcher Newell – two props not even in the squad until the week of the South African tour – had not performed so well.
Instead, he’ll meet with the team in Christchurch to prepare for an intriguing match against Argentina, which is coming off a big win over Australia a week from Saturday.
READ MORE: Which is better, Mo’unga or Barrett? After an epic victory, an old debate has resurfaced.
In confirming Foster’s retention on Wednesday afternoon, board chairman Stewart Mitchell stated that there would always be a review after the first five Tests this year, and given the All Blacks have lost three in a row – including a historic series defeat to Ireland and a clueless loss to South Africa at Mbombela Stadium – another loss in Johannesburg would presumably have had the board pulling the trigger.
Four defeats in five would have been too much for them to bear, especially after last year’s two consecutive losses in Dublin and Paris, all of which were characterised by a lack of attack clarity in the face of unrelenting but not unexpected defensive pressure.
The players could have pleaded all they wanted for Foster to stay, but it would have sounded hollow. It might have appeared that they were defending vested interests in some cases.
As it stands, the senior leadership group of Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane, and Ardie Savea, among others, saying they fully supported Foster would have carried weight with the board, as well as the public and media, and those latter two stakeholders should not be overlooked.
After what had to be described as a surprising victory built on courage and no shortage of attacking inspiration, the board would have recognised the way the political winds were blowing.
As a result, that epic victory had far-reaching consequences. It will keep Foster in his job until the World Cup, and presumably the dreaded review word will no longer apply even if the Crusaders’ November tour of the United Kingdom goes disastrously, as well as Jason Holland at the Hurricanes and Leon MacDonald at the Blues.
The latter two were almost certainly on Robertson’s shortlist for the top job, along with forwards coach Jason Ryan, who is now firmly and, dare I say, successfully embedded at the All Blacks following significant shifts from the pack in the two Tests in South Africa.
Taking Holland and MacDonald out of their Super Rugby teams, let alone Robertson, the most successful at that level ever, would have thrown the Kiwi element of Super Rugby into disarray at this point, and decisions the NZR board will be relieved not to have to make.
It would also have had a significant financial impact to fire Foster a year before his contract expired.
Twelve minutes was all it took for Foster to keep his job for another year; twelve minutes at the end of a Test featuring players like Mo’unga, de Groot, Newell, and, to a lesser extent, Shannon Frizell who Foster apparently didn’t think were the best for the job until then.
The speculation is finally over, but the scrutiny of board and head coach decisions is not.
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